Barton Biggs: If They Knew, They Wouldn't Tell You

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
— Niels Bohr

The market is a black box, and truly no one knows what it will do on any given day. Investors who find it hard to accept this fact turn to so-called experts or advisors, hoping they can provide certainty about the future.

While physicist Niels Bohr has been given credit for this quote, it actually dates back to a debate in the Danish parliament during the 1937-1938 Parliamentary session.

Legendary investor Barton Biggs added another dimension to the inherent uncertainty of the market by pointing out the obvious when he cited the following in his book, Diary of a Hedgehog:

If anyone really knew, they wouldn’t tell you.
— Anonymous, cited by Barton Biggs

The market is uncertain, no one knows the future, and if they did, why would they tell you? So, protect yourself from risk by investing with a margin of safety. And never risk so much money in any one investment that a reversal would put your portfolio at risk.

My Daily Oracle did an entire week on Barton Biggs in May 2025. Read them at www.mydailyoracle.com and meet us in your inbox again tomorrow.

Meanwhile, Barton Biggs’s Diary of a Hedgehog waits on the shelf—proof that doubt, handled properly, can be a profitable companion.

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