Voltaire on Investing Absurdly

Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position, but certainty is an absurd one.
— Voltaire

The markets rarely reward bravado, yet they habitually punish overconfidence. Voltaire’s warning against “certainty” reads like a footnote to every spectacular blow-up in financial history. When we convince ourselves that the future must unfold according to plan, we slip from analysis into fantasy. Our task is not to eliminate uncertainty. That is impossible. We want to recognize it, measure it, and live with it.

Probability is the compass that guides us through this fog. Instead of searching for a single “correct” forecast, we assign ranges of possible outcomes and ask what each scenario might cost or pay. In practice, this means dissecting assumptions the same way the Stoics rehearsed adversity in their exercise of "premeditatio malorum."

By picturing what could go wrong before it happens (higher rates, lower margins, political shocks, earnings fails), we inoculate ourselves against surprise and sharpen our sense of proportion. The unknown no longer feels like a cliff; it becomes a spectrum of risk we can weigh against expected reward.

Voltaire himself was no stranger to such calculations. His fortune grew partly from exploiting mispriced French lottery bonds. That scheme succeeded only because he spotted a hidden payoff that others ignored.

For more reflections on navigating uncertainty in finance and life, Voltaire’s classic Candide remains a brisk, insightful companion. (You can get a free Kindle edition at the link.

If you can't wait to read more about how Voltaire rigged the lottery, read Voltaire Buys a Fortune: The True Story of How Voltaire Outsmarted the French Lottery. (It is just $0.99 on the Kindle.)

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